London's minicabs went from 25% to 71% plug-in in under four years. Is this where every fleet is heading?

About 71% of London's licensed private hire vehicles can already plug in, up from around 25% in 2022. TfL now proposes fully electric for new licences from July 2028. What the minicab fleet shows other UK fleets.

By Mike Potter. Published 2026-10-23.

London's minicabs went from 25% to 71% plug-in in under four years. Is this where every fleet is heading?

The question: electric private hire is no longer a niche. TfL has proposed that, from July 2028, new private hire licences in London go only to fully electric vehicles. What does that tell us about where UK fleets are heading?

The short answer: the proposal is the next step in a change that has already happened. About 71% of London's licensed private hire vehicles (PHVs) are now battery electric or plug-in hybrid, up from around 25% in 2022. The London fleet is not a forecast for every fleet, but it shows what happens when a firm date, help with the upfront cost and workable charging line up. Nothing is law yet: the consultation runs until 23:59 on 2 December 2026.

The announcement

According to trade reporting of TfL's consultation (electrive, Taxi Point and PHTM, 22 to 23 October 2026), TfL proposes that:

PHVs new to London licensing must be fully battery electric from 3 July 2028;
wheelchair-accessible PHVs follow from 1 July 2030, to give manufacturers time to bring suitable models to market;
the rule would cover ride-hailing apps and traditional minicab operators, but not taxis;
from March 2027, stricter licensing rules would apply, including a 10-year maximum vehicle age.

How far the market has already moved

	Share of London PHVs
December 2022 (TfL): zero-emission capable	about 25%
September 2026 (TfL, as reported): fully electric	35.5%
September 2026: plug-in hybrid	35.2%
September 2026: battery electric or plug-in hybrid combined	about 71%

Of 94,661 licensed PHVs, that is roughly 67,000 vehicles that can already plug in. By comparison, plug-in cars are around one in ten of all UK cars, on our estimate from Zapmap and DVLA-based car parc figures (approximate).

Uber, the biggest app in the market, says more than 40% of its on-trip miles in London are now zero-emission (Uber Q1 2026 electrification report, company-reported). In 2022 it was 15%.

Why it worked

Three things came together, and they are the same three things any fleet needs.

A date. TfL has required newly licensed PHVs to be zero-emission capable since 2020, and every vehicle licensed for the first time since January 2023. Operators and drivers have had years to plan, and the proposal gives them another.
Help with the upfront cost. Uber put a levy on London trips into a fund for drivers' EV purchases and negotiated manufacturer discounts. The detail of those schemes has changed over time, but the point is that someone helped drivers over the upfront cost.
Mileage that rewards lower running costs. TfL puts the average PHV at about 30,500 km a year, roughly 19,000 miles. The more a vehicle drives, the more lower energy and maintenance costs add up, and the more it is worth solving charging.

Where it has struggled

Charging is where it has struggled. Uber pledged that every car on its London platform would be electric by the end of 2025, and has admitted it missed that. Its UK general manager says charging access is the biggest barrier for drivers. Congestion Charge changes have also moved the numbers: EVs, including private hire vehicles, lost their full exemption in January 2026 and now pay £13.50 a day (TfL).

So the London story is not "EVs are cheaper, job done". Cost and convenience of charging decide how fast drivers move, and Uber's response has been charging discounts, an advice service and a push for more chargers close to where drivers live.

Is this the future for all of us?

For fleets that cover high mileage in places with firm rules, probably yes, and sooner than many expect. For every other fleet it depends on the same three things:

Is there a date? Low-emission zones, customer requirements and procurement rules all act like TfL's licensing date.
Is the upfront cost bridged? In London, someone other than the driver did a lot of that work.
Does charging fit how people work? Home, depot and public charging each suit different duty patterns.

Treat London as a preview, not a promise. The fleets that moved early did so because the rule and the support arrived together.

What to watch before 2 December

The consultation closes on 2 December 2026, and final rules may differ from the proposal.
Whether suitable wheelchair-accessible models arrive in time for 2030.
Whether charging improves near where drivers live, which is the point Uber keeps returning to.

If you run a PHV business, you can respond to the consultation at tfl.gov.uk/tph-zero-emissions.

About CarbonFree Finance

We work with UK business fleets that operate through limited companies. If that is you and you are planning your own switch to electric, see who we help. For background on comparing vehicle emissions, read our guide to what your car's real carbon per mile is.

This article is general information about a regulatory proposal and market data. It is not financial advice.

Sources and notes

This article summarises reporting on a proposal that has not been adopted. Company figures are labelled as company-reported.